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The Effect of the Biden Vaccine Mandate on Vaccination and …
WEBAs part of his COVID-19 action plan, President Biden has announced vaccine requirements for three groups of workers, affecting around 100mn workers. First, the Department of Labor’s (DOL) Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) will require all employers with 100+ employees to ensure their 80mn workforce is fully …
Actived: 9 days ago
Back to the Future: Forecasting Inflation When Expectations Are
WEBUnlike in 2021, the broad-based nature of today’s elevated inflation is difficult to fully ascribe to microchip shortages or reopening effects, though those factors continue to be relevant (see here and here).As shown by the blue dots in Exhibit 2, our Effective Lockdown Index tracked many of the inflections in core prices between the 2020 …
Will Worker Shortages Be Short-Lived
WEBThe effects of these labor shortages are most clearly visible in recent wage data. Wage growth only reached 3% at the very end of last cycle, but our composition-adjusted wage tracker has risen to +3.7% year-on-year in 2021Q3, while our low-wage wage tracker—which summarizes wage growth measures among the population where …
The US Consumer: Still Strong in 2024 (Briggs)
WEBThe strength in spending was therefore largely predictable, since income growth was very likely to grow at a robust pace in 2023 barring major job losses ().In particular, cost-of-living adjustments and a normalization of the effective tax rate—which surged in 2022 due to outsized tax payments on capital gains that had occurred in …
Productivity in the Post-Pandemic Economy (Hill)
WEBThe surge in virtual meetings also shows no sign of reversing (see right panel), with the pace of growth for Zoom and Teams slowing but remaining positive during the first few quarters of the reopening. [2] Business surveys by the Atlanta Fed are also consistent with a persistent shift, with firms expecting three times as many external …
Healthcare’s Holy Grail Better outcomes at lower costs
WEBFrom a high-level, the shift to value and general industry cost pressures have led to a significant wave of horizontal and vertical consolidation by providers. Per AHA Hospital Data, 65% of hospitals were classified as …
The Genome Revolution ROFILES IN NNOVATION
WEBEQUITY RESEARCH | April 10, 2018. The following is a redacted version of the original report. See inside for details. The genome medicine revolution is front and center for investors in healthcare. The long-awaited optimization of science coupled with encouraging clinical trial results and regulatory approvals have resulted in gene/cell
The coronavirus pandemic and US federal investment in science
WEBThe federal government's role as a primary funding source for R&D has greatly diminished over the past few decades. In 1964, the federal government funded 66.9% of all R&D spending in the United States ().This percentage has declined steadily ever the late 1960s, to 47.4% in 1980, 25.1% in 2000, and 21.8% in 2017.
Concentration, Competition, and the Antitrust Policy Outlook
WEBThe Biden administration’s focus on competition is largely motivated by a long-run increase in national product market concentration. Among public companies, the average revenue share of the five largest firms in each industry (weighted by industry revenue) has increased steadily since the late 1990s, while the Herfindahl-Hirschman …
Mind the Gap: Core CPI Surges, But Core PCE Should Still Average …
WEBA: Following the upside surprise in the April CPI and more severe auto-sector bottlenecks in the late spring, we now forecast core CPI inflation to peak at 3.6% in June, to end the year at 3.5%, and to average 2.7% in 2022. Relative to our forecasts in early May, these figures reflect increases of up to 1¼pp for this year and ⅓pp for next year.
2022 US Economic Outlook: Early Liftoff (Mericle)
WEB2022 US Economic Outlook: Early Liftoff. This year brought both the quick recovery we expected and several surprises. A common theme among the surprises is that many changes in economic life caused by the pandemic persist half a year after vaccines became widely available in the US. Some consumers continue to avoid high-contact …
Track My Package: A Roadmap for Supply Chain Normalization
WEBWith used car prices rising sharply again and 30+ million tons of cargo waiting outside US ports ahead of the holiday season, we assess three key drivers of supply chain normalization and their most likely timing: 1) improved chip supply driven by post-Delta factory restarts (4Q21) and eventually by expanded production capacity (2H22 and …
10 Questions for 2022 (Mericle / Phillips)
WEBYes, but the impact on 2022 is likely to be modest. We recently downgraded our economic forecast for 2022Q1-Q3, with most of the change concentrated early in the year, due to lack of support in the Senate for the House-passed Build Back Better (BBB) bill and the near-term spending it includes. Most importantly, it now looks less likely, in our …
Hedge fund crowding reaches new record as popular positions …
WEBIn this report we analyze the holdings of 735 hedge funds with $2.4 trillion of gross equity positions at the start of 4Q 2023 ($1.6 trillion long and $797 billion short). The combination of elevated hedge fund concentration and the strong performance of popular stocks has supported returns this year but lifted our crowding index to a record high.
UK Social Mobility — A Tough Climb
WEBTurning to the experience within the UK, researchers analysing IGE across the UK’s earnings distribution find that this intergenerational persistence of income varies significantly by socio-economic background. In particular, as Exhibit 3 illustrates, there exists a well-documented J-shaped relationship between parental income and children’s …
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